MLB hit probability engine
A calibrated probability model curates a handful of MLB Best Bets every day. Every prediction is logged, every outcome is graded, and every miss is published. No retroactive edits. No cherry-picking.
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Today · No.1 pick
Locked 11 AM ET
Today's board · locked 11 AM ET
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Hit%
◆ The Pipeline
Daily lineup ingestion
Confirmed lineups pulled from the MLB Stats API 3 hours before first pitch. Pitcher-batter matchups built for every slot in every game.
◆ Plans
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Washington Nationals · vs Scherzer
Live engine output · the same data subscribers see
Hit%
Hit%
11 more picks · all signals · all chips
Free account unlocks the full board.
Full player rankings with the Signal Pulse, factor breakdown, CI confidence, and live in-game results.
Per-PA hit probability
Each at-bat scored against four families of signal: player quality, matchup, context, and opportunity. Each pulls the probability up or down by a small amount.
Edge Score, 0-100
The lifts roll up into a confidence-weighted score that ranks the slate. The top of the distribution is asymptotic, so the very best picks never tie at the ceiling. Top-ranked become Best Bets.
Recalibrated daily, audited publicly
Raw output is re-fit nightly against actual outcomes, and only deployed if it measurably improves accuracy. Every prediction is logged with every outcome.
★ The output · four tiers, S through C
Elite
Score 80+
Top-tier edge today - highest hit probability in the model
Strong
Score 65–79
Clear advantage - elevated hit probability above MLB avg
Value
Score 50–64
Modest edge - worth including but not a lock
Neutral
Score <50
No significant edge - model sees no clear advantage