◆ About
We don’t. Every prediction is locked at 11 AM ET, published with the actual outcome, and never edited. The number you see is the number we hit.
The problem
You’ve seen the sites. “78% hit rate” on the homepage. “Locked guaranteed picks” in the email. A track record that conveniently starts from last Tuesday after a 5-game cold streak got memory-holed.
Most prediction services run on three patterns: cherry-pick the wins, hide the losses, inflate the sample. It works because the audience self-selects - bettors hearing “we hit 78%” rarely demand to see the raw ledger.
We don’t blame anyone for being skeptical. You should be.
The promise
exitvelo.ai is the opposite. The engine runs every morning before lineups are confirmed. It scores every batter in every game on a calibrated probability model. Those scores are written to durable storage, indexed by date, and they never change again.
Overnight, the boxscore matcher reads what actually happened and pairs each prediction with its outcome. The next morning, the track record page shows it.
When we publish a hit rate, it’s the live number from the prediction store - not a marketing pull-quote. Every individual pick is queryable, every miss is on the record, and the figure on this page is what the database actually says right now.
The model
There’s no “AI” magic. The engine is a calibrated probability model that evaluates every batter across four families of MLB-wide signal - player quality, matchup, context, and opportunity. Each family contributes a small percentage-point adjustment to a baseline.
The raw output is recalibrated against actual outcomes nightly. The update only ships if it measurably improves accuracy - otherwise yesterday’s calibration rides unchanged. We’d rather conservatively publish a 60% pick that hits 62% of the time than over-confidently publish an 80% pick that hits 65%.
Curious about the details? Read the full methodology - it walks every signal, the scoring math, and the calibration loop.
The audience
Convinced? Skeptical? Either way the data is open.
exitvelo.ai isn’t for the casual fan looking for a confident-sounding pick to lean on. It’s for the bettor who builds their own slip, wants to see the signal breakdown, and trusts a calibrated probability more than a 5-star rating.
If you want a tipster who promises you a lock - we’re the wrong site. If you want a published probability and the data behind it - we’re the right one.
The team
exitvelo.ai is a one-person operation. The engine, the scoring math, the calibration loop, the website, the email digest - all built and maintained by the same person who answers hello@exitvelo.ai.
No marketing team. No content farm. No paid “handicappers” whose track records you can’t verify. Just a working model with its ledger open.
The number
The Best Bet hit rate at the top of this page is computed at request time from the production prediction store. We can’t fake it without literally rewriting the database - which would invalidate the entire premise of the site.
If it’s up next month, we’re proud of it. If it’s down, you’ll see that too. That’s the deal.
- every single page on this site refreshes the same number from the same source. No marketing dashboards. No different version for visitors vs subscribers.