Exitvelo Power Grid
T-Mobile Home Run Derby
For fun · not a model call
The Home Run Derby is a timed exhibition, not a game. Our calibrated hit model does not apply here, so nothing on this page is a model call or a bet. The Power Grid below is a transparent power heuristic built from public Statcast data, shared for fun. No line, no pick to grade.
All 8 sluggers ordered by our Exitvelo Power Index. Bars show each hitter's rank within this 8-man field (longer = more power, never inverted); the number beside each bar is the real Statcast value. Nothing here is graded.
Barrel king of the field (20.0%) with a 59% hard-hit rate; lefty stroke fits the porch.
Top-end thump: field-best 116.9 max EV and a 463 ft max blast.
Field-leading 32 HR, 19.3% barrels, and the hometown crowd behind him.
116.6 max EV and 459 ft ceiling; pure right-handed raw power.
Rookie cannon: 116.1 max EV, 56% hard-hit, longest avg HR (414 ft).
Steady 14.2% barrels and 449 ft ceiling, but a step behind on hard-hit.
457 ft ceiling and the crowd, but a lower 11.3% barrel rate this year.
28 HR and 15.3% barrels, but the shortest max distance (433 ft) in the field.
Power Index: 0.30*maxEV + 0.25*maxDistance + 0.20*barrel% + 0.15*hardHit% + 0.10*avgHRdistance (each normalized within the field), plus a +4 park nudge for LHB at CBP. A transparent heuristic, not a calibrated model.
Exitvelo Power Bracket - our projection, seeded by our power rank. Official matchups are set at first pitch, so the semifinal and final slots stay open for the actual event to fill.
Round 1 · Quarterfinals
Murakami by Power Index (78.0 vs 14.8)
Walker by Power Index (69.5 vs 68.3)
Schwarber by Power Index (70.4 vs 45.2)
Caminero by Power Index (74.3 vs 41.4)
Round 2 · Semifinals
Final
Left-handed HR-friendly: our 2026 park feed has CBP at a 110 run index for LHB vs 100 for RHB (the left-field porch). 5 of the 8 hitters are lefties.
Source: our 2026 park-factors feed (Citizens Bank Park, all-hitter index 104).
Lefty-heavy field meets a lefty park: 5 of 8 hitters bat left, and CBP boosts LHB home runs (110 index vs 100 for righties in our 2026 park feed).
Raw-power ceiling: Junior Caminero (116.9 mph) and Jordan Walker (116.6) own the hardest-hit balls in the field; Caminero also has the longest blast at 463 ft.
Repeatable thump: Munetaka Murakami (20.0% barrels, 59% hard-hit) and Kyle Schwarber (19.3%) square up the most balls, which tends to travel over a long Derby round.
Hometown pull: Schwarber (field-best 32 HR) and Bryce Harper swing in front of a Philadelphia crowd at their home park.
Back to the daily edge
The calibrated model runs every game day.
Power heuristic from public Statcast data. For entertainment only. No line, no pick to grade.